This is a question that is certainly on the minds of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors and traders. The Bitcoin halving, that is the new supply being reduced from 12.5 BTC/block to 6.25 BTC/block is scheduled to occur approximately 10th May 2020.
If we take a look at the previous halving, which was 9th July 2016, the price of bitcoin was ~$659/BTC on that day. Two days prior to the halving there was a slight pullback to $628/BTC (7th July 2016). However, if we zoom out, Bitcoin had hit a local high of roughly $775/BTC mid-June 2016 and trickled down in a small local correction until it reached a local bottom on 2nd August 2016 of $556/BTC.
I have illustrated the movements of bitcoin from May 2016 to December 2016, from CoinMarketCap.
At the time of writing, the 2020 Bitcoin Halving is about 2 months away. We have seen some excellent appreciation in the Bitcoin price in January and February 2020 (from a low of ~$7,200/BTC to a local high of $10,360/BTC).
That being said, we cannot expect an identical pattern to repeat. However, I think that we can expect some similar movements. The Bitcoin investment landscape has changed for the better, with greater institutional awareness and growing institutional investments in both startups and actual bitcoin.
Some Major Developments in the Cryptocurrency Industry Since the 2016 Halving
- We have the Institutions opening cryptocurrency exchanges/investments. These are large institutional players, who were not live with their exchanges in the previous bitcoin halving. And we haven’t even seen large volumes transacted on them yet.
- Bakkt futures exchange live
- Fidelity Digital Assets live
- TD Ameritrade live
- Binance exchange did not exist, and the other large exchanges (Kraken, Gemini, Coinbase) were not nearly as developed – in fact they crashed with high user traffic and on-boarding during the 2017 bull run.
- Pension funds (Fairfax County’s Virginia’s Police Officer’s Retirement System & Employees’ Retirement System) are investing in the cryptocurrency industry. Morgan Creek Digital raised over $60 million into a blockchain fund, thanks to Anthony Pompliano.
- Facebook proposed its Libra Cryptocurrency to the world
- Central banks around the world want to deploy their own blockchain-based, centralized digital cryptocurrencies.
- The Cryptocurrency Act 2020 proposed in US Congress
- Proliferation of Stablecoins
- The University of Michigan and Harvard University Endowment Funds Investing in Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency, with more likely also investing unbeknownst to us.
The above is just a small subset of developments over the past 4 years, most over the last 2 years. None of this existed before the 2016 Bitcoin halving. Because we have all of this further vested interest in Bitcoin, and the cryptocurrency space, I believe that the long term outlook after the 2020 bitcoin halving will be highly positive.
Bitcoin Price Before/After May 2020 Halving
I think that it is probable that we may see a relatively small dip, no more than 10-15%, either soon before, and/or in the weeks following the May 2020 Bitcoin halving. This may be due to traders taking profits, fears of uncertainty surrounding the halving, a decline in miners profitability (since the same amount of energy will be expended for half as much bitcoin), and a slew of other reasons.
However, long term, as in 12 months from now and beyond, I expect a significant increase in bitcoin price appreciation, likely over the $100,000 barrier.
As always, please feel free to comment with any of your opinions, questions, comments etc regarding the upcoming price movements surrounding the 2020 Bitcoin halving!
A reminder that no information on this post or site constitutes financial advice. Always consult with your financial advisor, do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
Sources:
- CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC)
- Business Insider “Some of the Biggest Crypto Exchanges are Shutting Out New Users Because They Can’t Keep Up With Demand“
- CoinDesk “Pension Funds Put $50 Million Into Morgan Creek’s New Blockchain Fund“
- TD Ameritrade Site
- Bakkt Futures Exchange Site
- Fidelity Digital Assets Site
- Reuters, “Explainer: Central Bank Digital Currencies – Moving Towards Reality?“
- Techcrunch, “Facebook announces Libra cryptocurrency: All you need to know“
